Although anecdotal, all of a sudden some of my clients in the construction industry have work again after at least a year of very hard times. Perhaps we have rounded the corner? I hope so.
One of the very frustrating aspects of this economic downturn is the huge heaps of uncertainty surrounding us. For example:
- The tax credits for home purchases keep getting extended after they expire. So do I have to buy now or not to get the credit? When these credits finally do expire, will the housing market go into another tailspin?
- Huge healthcare overhaul legislation is passed but the brunt of the changes are still years away. In the meantime, cost controls on premiums are non-existent. What will be the ultimate effect of these changes on small business and individuals? Will the legislation be repealed by the Republicans before ever going into effect?
- Financial reform legislation is passed. The big question though about the new regulations is how effective will the new consumer agency be? Has the “to big to fail” problem really been fixed given that most pundits say the new law does not go far enough?
- Has the oil spill in the Gulf really stopped and what is going to be the long-term effect of the spill on the region? Will BP make good on all its promises to compensate the victims? Is offshore drilling going to be restricted as a result of this disaster?
- Are we going to leave Afghanistan next year or not?
- Is the Iraq occupation going to be over or are we going to stay there for the next hundred years?
- Will the Federal government get control of its budget? In trying to do so, will the government kill off any possibility of future job growth?
- Will Arizona successfully start enforcing immigration laws while other states follow their lead or will the Federal government get the law overturned?
- Will the Bush tax cuts expire next year? Will there be a tax increase on the middle class as a result? Will the Federal estate tax be retroactively re-instituted for 2010 and be in effect in future years? What will be the effect of increasing taxes on higher income individuals?
Markets hate uncertainty. The only thing you can be sure of these days is that we are living in very uncertain times. And that is not good for the economy, that’s for sure.
